Political change is never easy. Sometimes there are so-called velvet revolutions where the people in power weigh the risks and simply decide to get out of the way.
But more times than not, there are demonstrations and protests, followed by riot, terrorist attacks, assassinations and then ultimately, full blown rebellions, revolutions or civil wars. Add sectarian violence to the mix and you have the chaos that most often brings about significant change.
A year ago, we had the Arab Spring. While some longtime leaders fled or accepted house arrest, others fought on, only to face retribution sparked by the anger of their persecuted subjects.
No one knows how things will play out in Syria. Bashar Assad is not his father, even if he uses the same tactics. Whether he can quell a restive population and avoid ouster remains to be seen.
What other Arab countries are willing to do for the people could influence the outcome, but it could also come down to how many Arab fighters from more than a score of nations opt to join the fray.
In Iran, the Persians in power have their own problems. Besides a young population weary of the stifling rules of the ayatollahs, there are also outside pressures designed to destabilize the aging regime.The Islamic Revolution was a long time ago, and even still, there are a lot of Iranians inside the country and abroad who wouldn't mind a good dose of western culture.
In the emirates and kingdoms, there are calls for democracy, women's rights and economic opportunities. The ruling powerful are rich, but many of the people do not share in the oil and mineral wealth of their countries and are facing high prices and shortages of basic goods.
When you think about the early years of any nation created or rebuilt following political upheavals the images are the same. Struggle, euphoria, thoughtful efforts at lawmaking, disastisfaction, disillusionment, conflict, destruction, and reconstruction.
In Western Asia, there are nations in varied states of getting there. With so many outcomes now uncertain watchingm waiting and deciding later who to help makes an awful lot of sense.
But more times than not, there are demonstrations and protests, followed by riot, terrorist attacks, assassinations and then ultimately, full blown rebellions, revolutions or civil wars. Add sectarian violence to the mix and you have the chaos that most often brings about significant change.
No one knows how things will play out in Syria. Bashar Assad is not his father, even if he uses the same tactics. Whether he can quell a restive population and avoid ouster remains to be seen.
What other Arab countries are willing to do for the people could influence the outcome, but it could also come down to how many Arab fighters from more than a score of nations opt to join the fray.
In Iran, the Persians in power have their own problems. Besides a young population weary of the stifling rules of the ayatollahs, there are also outside pressures designed to destabilize the aging regime.The Islamic Revolution was a long time ago, and even still, there are a lot of Iranians inside the country and abroad who wouldn't mind a good dose of western culture.
In the emirates and kingdoms, there are calls for democracy, women's rights and economic opportunities. The ruling powerful are rich, but many of the people do not share in the oil and mineral wealth of their countries and are facing high prices and shortages of basic goods.
When you think about the early years of any nation created or rebuilt following political upheavals the images are the same. Struggle, euphoria, thoughtful efforts at lawmaking, disastisfaction, disillusionment, conflict, destruction, and reconstruction.
In Western Asia, there are nations in varied states of getting there. With so many outcomes now uncertain watchingm waiting and deciding later who to help makes an awful lot of sense.
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